After this post I found some time to create a little tool. It took a little more time then I had anticipated and still could use some error handling but for it works (I hope) and I could use some feedback.

try it out if you have the time: http://www.100000eurohomepage.com/adsense-forecast-tool/

Kind regards

Simon: I use several periods for short- and long-term indicators. I start with 7 day, 14d and 28d, then I add new periods that are multiples of 28d. This helps you determine long-term revenues.

I also do the same thing on a metric of “7 day sum”. I use the same windows, I gotta tell, if you want to see what your earnings will be like in the short-term, this is the MMA set you want to use.

Again, these are just forecasts, not guarantees :)

Raj: MMA techniques? Now you’ve made me feel all inadequate.

;o))

Finally information which is more realistic (for me that is).

@raj, I read up on MMA and I am going to set some target for
April. btw: which period do you use???

grtz

This is what I’ve tried to do as well, and it feels good to actually reach some milestones, no matter how small. I also do forecasting based on a simple but powerful statistical technique known as MMAs (Multiple Moving Averages). It’s used in the stock market to track short- and long-term indicators.

I know it sounds like overkill, but it’s really incredibly valuable, and works like a reverse crystal ball to show you trends. When you pair your MMAs with smaller milestones, it feels very good, and gives you motivation to continue.